> All the articles on the shortage of COBOL programmers is actually companies whining that they can’t find cheap labor.
The word “COBOL” isn’t necessary in that sentence.
And, for that matter, “programmers” could be replaced with any skilled work field for which such complaints exist.
An actual shortage of labor (where the demand curve is above the supply curve at all price points) is theoretically possible, but in the real world nearly 100% of complaints about labor shortages are really complaints that the intersection of the supply an demand curves are at a point that results in purchasers of labor making less profit from whatever they are buying that labor for than they’d like, and laborers making more than those employers would like.
And "companies" could be replaced by "people" and "labor" could be replaced by "stuff"...
The case of COBOL is of interest as there was a wave of articles this year suggesting there was some sort of anomaly on the market: tons of COBOL programs and not a soul alive to maintain them.
> The case of COBOL is of interest as there was a wave of articles this year suggesting there was some sort of anomaly on the market: tons of COBOL programs and not a soul alive to maintain them.
There’s probably something more like a legitimate short-term shortage in that case, because you have lots of immediate demand for changes (because of urgent business process changes) to stale legacy systems, so you really don’t have the luxury of waiting on long-term corrective mechanisms like retraining, price signalling through the pipeline for workforce entrants, etc., before the value opportunity is missed. COVID-19 and the resulting (many probably short-term) legal and business changes created a number of market anomalies of that kind.
Do note this kind of wave of articles is recurrent, is not tied in general to COVID-19 (might be in the current situation, but I've seen it at least once or twice a year), and has been almost always false. "False" in the sense that no, learning COBOL is not such a great career choice to enter a life of wealth and untapped riches.
The word “COBOL” isn’t necessary in that sentence.
And, for that matter, “programmers” could be replaced with any skilled work field for which such complaints exist.
An actual shortage of labor (where the demand curve is above the supply curve at all price points) is theoretically possible, but in the real world nearly 100% of complaints about labor shortages are really complaints that the intersection of the supply an demand curves are at a point that results in purchasers of labor making less profit from whatever they are buying that labor for than they’d like, and laborers making more than those employers would like.