P(all heads|double headed coin) = 1 P(all heads|fair coin) = 2^{-L} Applying Bay... | Hacker News

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yters on Nov 3, 2017 | parent | context | favorite | on: What I Learned from Losing $200M (2015)

P(all heads|double headed coin) = 1

P(all heads|fair coin) = 2^{-L}

Applying Bayes gets P(double headed coin|all heads) >> P(fair coin|all heads) for a long enough sequence.

the_cat_kittles on Nov 3, 2017 [–]

thats what i suggested originally, essentially

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